The two 'dark horses' who may succeed Pope Francis - 'surprising' result possible

Two potential candidates to as pontiff are "dark horses" getting less attention than others, a papacy expert has said. And she noted that the secretive process of selecting Catholic leaders often produces "surprising results".

The funeral for Francis, who after suffering a stroke, was held in Rome on Saturday in a massive ceremony attended by world leaders including Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky, as well as hundreds of thousands of mourners. But while senior Vatican figures are still reeling from his passing, aged 88, deliberations over his successor via the papal Conclave have already begun.

The behind-closed-doors process sees the College of Cardinals gathering to elect the next Bishop of Rome, and various well-known names within the church, like Pietro Parolin and Luis Antonio Tagle have been singled out as possible successors. However, Professor Rebecca Rist, Medievalist and Papal Historian, the University of Reading's Department of History says a couple of cardinals could take Vatican watchers by surprise.

Speaking to , she said there are "often surprising results since the balloting process at the Conclave is secret and so between the cardinals and their consciences".

The academic said Vatican sources suggest out of the 22 leading carndinals there are around 12 who are "papabili" or possible contenders.

These include much-talked out leading Bishops like Pietro Parolin, Luis Antonio Tagle, Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, Peter Turkson, Robert Sarah and Péter Erd.

But the academic also singled out Jean-Marc Aveline, 66, and Wilfrid Fox Napier, 84, as figures "who are dark horses and are perhaps not getting enough attention".

Aveline, who was born in French Algeria and grew up in France, has served as the Archbishop of Marseille since 2019, and was named a cardinal by Pope Francis in 2022.

The website, which provides profiles of cardinals and their stances on various issues, describes Aveline as a "rather liberal figure, but one inclined to consensus", which could enable him to bridge ideological divides.

Like Pope Francis he is characterised as being "affable" and "heterodox-leaning" with "broad appeal who is dedicated to issues of migration and interreligious dialogue".

However, some commentators have suggested the Conclave may look towards the conservative wing of the church, away from progressive figures like Aveline, who is seen as being closely alligned with the pontiff's outlook.

Professor Rist believes there is "the possibility that the cardinals will go in the opposite direction and choose as the next pope someone who will be more agreeable to the conservatives/ traditionalists in order to hold the Church together and prevent a schism - not least by those traditional mass Catholics who might go Lefebvrian if a liberal was appointed."

"Or the cardinals might possibly go for a more middle of the ground, consensual pope who will not rock the boat either way and can attempt to unite both sides," she added.

Meanwhile, Napier, 84, is described by the having a "reputation of being an attentive pastor and is a keen user of social media (especially X) to vent sometimes frank and unguarded opinions".

A former Archbishop of Durban, South Africa, Napier is known for being far more conservative, characterised as "fiercely pro-life and has been especially vocal against abortion, ideological colonisation, and same-sex unions, although quiet on same-sex blessings".

Napier has also previously voiced his opposition to condom use in the prevention of HIV and AIDS, instead proposing programmes based upon the principle of abstinence.

He was a powerful voice of opposition against Apartheid, uniting with other church leaders to fight racial segregation.

But despite standing at odds with many of Pope Francis' positions, he was a passionate supporter of the pontiff and said after his death the church had been changed by the Catholic leader's teachings.

"Anyone who was excluded by race, culture or sexual orientation, Pope Francis would say the church should be there to care for them. It is one of the lessons that we learnt," he told the .