The damaging air strikes on seven Pakistan airbases on the early hours of Saturday (May 10) proved be the turning point in the military action against Pakistan. Within hours, ET has gathered, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was on the phone with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, letting him know that Pakistan was ready for a ceasefire.
Soon after, similar signalling came from Saudi Arabia as well as the United Arab Emirates. And then, Pakistan DGMO reached out to his Indian counterpart through established channels, seeking a ceasefire.
It was the beginning of a possible but cautious winding down of a four-day intense military operation, which had laid bare Pakistan air bases through a systematic destruction of their air defence systems – the military advantage had decisively shifted in India’s favour.
THE BEGINNING
India started Operation Sindoor with three clear objectives:
All targets were chosen keeping this broad frame in mind with a conscious view of taking these strikes beyond what had been done in 2016, when India crossed the Line of Control to conduct surgical strikes post-Uri attack, and in 2019, when flew deeper into Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to carry out the Balakot strikes.
Soon after the attacks, India informed Pakistan through the DGMO channel that strikes were directed against terror sites and not on Pakistan Army or civilians. The response from Pakistan DGMO, ET has learnt, was aggressive. He conveyed that Pakistan will now respond militarily. India was prepared.
As a result, it was decided at the highest levels, then conveyed to the military leadership that they must respond immediately to any Pakistani provocation -- and not wait to check for any higher clearance.
THE ‘LAST FIRE’ ADVANTAGE
Once it became clear after Pakistan DGMO’s response that attacks on Indian Armed Forces was imminent, the focus shifted on the third objective. The same approach was also followed diplomatically.
First, the military operations.
India decided to take down Pakistan’s air defence systems systematically after Pakistani drones and unmanned aerial vehicles tried to target all key Indian bases from Srinagar and Awantipore in Jammu & Kashmir down to Bhuj in Gujarat. India responded in the early hours of May 8 and took down the air defence system in Lahore.
The idea, sources said, was to lay bare their air bases and make their fighter aircraft and drone fleets vulnerable on ground over the next 24-48 hours. With better precision capabilities, India’s Harop drones equipped with loitering munitions proved immensely successful.
However, as planned, the burden of military escalation – just like after May 7 -- had fallen again on Pakistan by May 8 after India had quickly responded to provocation with a heavy attack on the Lahore facility.
Amid intense diplomatic pressure, Pakistan decided to respond in the night through a major assault on 36 locations – from Leh to Sir Creek -- across the LoC and the international border, targeting important cities and even religious sites.
India stuck to its plan of using any Pakistani provocation to further take down its air defence sites. So, soon after the 300-400 Pak drone attacks were neutralised by India’s air defence, in line with the twin of objectives of having the advantage of the last fire and laying bare Pakistani airbases, Indian forces destroyed four more air defence facilities including a radar site.
As a result of these counter strikes, by day break on Day 3 (May 9), the burden of escalation was back on Pakistan. That was also the day the International Monetary Fund’s Executive Board was meeting to approve another tranche of financial assistance for Pakistan.
So, Pakistan waited. And then, unleashed its strongest attack in three days by launching what it called Operation Bunyan Marsoos, which as subsequent developments have shown, proved to be shortlived.
However, on the night of May 9 after IMF approved its assistance package, Pakistan deployed a wide range of arsenal – UAVs, loitering munitions, fighter aircraft, long range artillery and missiles – under this new operation code. It targeted civilian and military bases as India defended stoutly with the S-400 and Akash air defence systems.
This went on for hours and just like in the past, India responded in the early hours of May 10 without losing time because Islamabad had hoped that diplomatic pressure will come on New Delhi soon. But India had different plans.
This time Indian forces took advantage of having taken down most of Pakistan’s air defence systems to target their air bases. Those familiar with the details told ET that Pakistan never thought India would take it that far because the targets took Indian strikes right into the heart of Pakistan.
Other two bases targeted were Sukkur and Chunian. Again, within hours, the burden of escalation was back on Pakistan. But this time, the damage was immense and on four key bases in Punjab and one in Sindh.
Pakistan, sources said, had been denuded of any air defence to deal with further attacks. It stood at the door of increased vulnerability, said a source, adding that as per the pattern of India’s response, any further escalation from Pakistan could result in a bigger, stronger response.
DIPLOMATIC MANUEVRES
India had three clear objectives to hold on the diplomatic front, which were complementary to the military offensive:
India’s messaging on terror was convincing from day one as most of the international community, including key powers barring China, understood the circumstances post-Pahalgam leading up to the strikes on terror camps. However, the messaging India got most of May 7 was to not escalate matters.
Pakistan’s military actions on the intervening night of May 7-8 and India’s prompt military response put India in a position to respond to all interlocutors: ‘Tell Pakistan not to escalate’.
The strategy of not delaying military response, sources said, paid off because before any pressure could be brought, India had acted on the ground.
While many reached out, sources said, three countries played a ‘helpful role’ – US, Saudi Arabia and UAE. But India’s message was firm no to any mediation.
In fact, India made it clear if any leaders from any country want to visit New Delhi, they could come but must not plan on traveling to Islamabad from here. Apart from the fact that the airspace was closed, India conveyed that it would make no exceptions either.
At some point, Saudi Arabia suggested a ‘face-to-face’ talk between India and Pakistan in its presence. New Delhi refused. Saudi Minister of State for foreign Affairs Adel bin Ahmed al-Jubeir did visit India but under the condition that he cannot travel to Pakistan from here.
These three countries, sources said, delivered India’s message to Pakistan that if it escalates matters militarily, India will continue to respond. Those familiar with details told ET that Pakistan was brought under considerable pressure because each time it made the call for further escalation, it had difficult phone calls to handle.
And just like on the military front, each decision on escalation was followed by more pressure. Eventually, the hits on the air bases and the growing diplomatic pressure proved too difficult for Pakistan to handle.
TYING UP THE ENDS
Finally, the Pakistan DGMO made the call seeking a ceasefire on May 10. India said it’s willing to ‘stop fire’ but Pakistan will have to pull back troops and show convincing measures of military de-escalation.
When firings resumed in the night, the Pakistan DGMO was again asked of Islamabad’s sincerity. Indicating a lack of cohesion in the Pakistani system, sources said, the Pak DGMO sought more time.
By March 11 morning, some calm had started to return. However, sources said, India will remain on high alert and not roll back any of the diplomatic decisions it took soon after the Pahalgam attack including the call to hold the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance.
Soon after, similar signalling came from Saudi Arabia as well as the United Arab Emirates. And then, Pakistan DGMO reached out to his Indian counterpart through established channels, seeking a ceasefire.
It was the beginning of a possible but cautious winding down of a four-day intense military operation, which had laid bare Pakistan air bases through a systematic destruction of their air defence systems – the military advantage had decisively shifted in India’s favour.
THE BEGINNING
India started Operation Sindoor with three clear objectives:
- Strike three fountainheads of terrorism directed at India: Bahawalpur (Jaish-e-Mohammed), Muridke (Lashkar-e-Toiba) and Muzaffarabad (Hizbul Mujahideen & LeT).
All targets were chosen keeping this broad frame in mind with a conscious view of taking these strikes beyond what had been done in 2016, when India crossed the Line of Control to conduct surgical strikes post-Uri attack, and in 2019, when flew deeper into Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to carry out the Balakot strikes.
- Duration of strikes must be short, simultaneous and precise: As a result, all attacks were carried out at the same time with the Indian strikes on March 7 lasting not more than 15-20 minutes.
Soon after the attacks, India informed Pakistan through the DGMO channel that strikes were directed against terror sites and not on Pakistan Army or civilians. The response from Pakistan DGMO, ET has learnt, was aggressive. He conveyed that Pakistan will now respond militarily. India was prepared.
- Always keep the burden of escalation on Pakistan: To serve this objective, sources said, a call was taken that India should always have the last fire in any military exchange.
As a result, it was decided at the highest levels, then conveyed to the military leadership that they must respond immediately to any Pakistani provocation -- and not wait to check for any higher clearance.
THE ‘LAST FIRE’ ADVANTAGE
Once it became clear after Pakistan DGMO’s response that attacks on Indian Armed Forces was imminent, the focus shifted on the third objective. The same approach was also followed diplomatically.
First, the military operations.
India decided to take down Pakistan’s air defence systems systematically after Pakistani drones and unmanned aerial vehicles tried to target all key Indian bases from Srinagar and Awantipore in Jammu & Kashmir down to Bhuj in Gujarat. India responded in the early hours of May 8 and took down the air defence system in Lahore.
The idea, sources said, was to lay bare their air bases and make their fighter aircraft and drone fleets vulnerable on ground over the next 24-48 hours. With better precision capabilities, India’s Harop drones equipped with loitering munitions proved immensely successful.
However, as planned, the burden of military escalation – just like after May 7 -- had fallen again on Pakistan by May 8 after India had quickly responded to provocation with a heavy attack on the Lahore facility.
Amid intense diplomatic pressure, Pakistan decided to respond in the night through a major assault on 36 locations – from Leh to Sir Creek -- across the LoC and the international border, targeting important cities and even religious sites.
India stuck to its plan of using any Pakistani provocation to further take down its air defence sites. So, soon after the 300-400 Pak drone attacks were neutralised by India’s air defence, in line with the twin of objectives of having the advantage of the last fire and laying bare Pakistani airbases, Indian forces destroyed four more air defence facilities including a radar site.
As a result of these counter strikes, by day break on Day 3 (May 9), the burden of escalation was back on Pakistan. That was also the day the International Monetary Fund’s Executive Board was meeting to approve another tranche of financial assistance for Pakistan.
So, Pakistan waited. And then, unleashed its strongest attack in three days by launching what it called Operation Bunyan Marsoos, which as subsequent developments have shown, proved to be shortlived.
However, on the night of May 9 after IMF approved its assistance package, Pakistan deployed a wide range of arsenal – UAVs, loitering munitions, fighter aircraft, long range artillery and missiles – under this new operation code. It targeted civilian and military bases as India defended stoutly with the S-400 and Akash air defence systems.
This went on for hours and just like in the past, India responded in the early hours of May 10 without losing time because Islamabad had hoped that diplomatic pressure will come on New Delhi soon. But India had different plans.
This time Indian forces took advantage of having taken down most of Pakistan’s air defence systems to target their air bases. Those familiar with the details told ET that Pakistan never thought India would take it that far because the targets took Indian strikes right into the heart of Pakistan.
- Chaklala (Nur Khan) base: This is located near Rawalpindi is home to Pakistan’s air mobility command as well as PAF college. It was badly damaged in the strikes.
- Rafiqui base: In Shorkut Cantt, Punjab, is a major facility with large runways. Again, badly hit after air defences were down.
- Rahim Yar Khan base: Located in southern Punjab (opposite Rajasthan), it’s a key facility for drones, UAVs and fighters. The destruction was severe according to reports.
- Murid base: In Chakwal, northern Punjab, Murid is a forward operating base and probably, from where most of the drones and missiles were launched on India. It was also destructively hit.
Other two bases targeted were Sukkur and Chunian. Again, within hours, the burden of escalation was back on Pakistan. But this time, the damage was immense and on four key bases in Punjab and one in Sindh.
Pakistan, sources said, had been denuded of any air defence to deal with further attacks. It stood at the door of increased vulnerability, said a source, adding that as per the pattern of India’s response, any further escalation from Pakistan could result in a bigger, stronger response.
DIPLOMATIC MANUEVRES
India had three clear objectives to hold on the diplomatic front, which were complementary to the military offensive:
- Operation Sindoor was targeted against terror camps, were non-escalatory and not a conventional strike against Pakistan
- India will not be part of any mediation, onus is on Pakistan to correct its approach
- As matters escalate, always be in a position to tell any interlocutor that the onus of de-escalation is with Pakistan. This dovetails with the military strategy of ensuring the burden of military escalation was always kept with Pakistan.
India’s messaging on terror was convincing from day one as most of the international community, including key powers barring China, understood the circumstances post-Pahalgam leading up to the strikes on terror camps. However, the messaging India got most of May 7 was to not escalate matters.
Pakistan’s military actions on the intervening night of May 7-8 and India’s prompt military response put India in a position to respond to all interlocutors: ‘Tell Pakistan not to escalate’.
The strategy of not delaying military response, sources said, paid off because before any pressure could be brought, India had acted on the ground.
While many reached out, sources said, three countries played a ‘helpful role’ – US, Saudi Arabia and UAE. But India’s message was firm no to any mediation.
In fact, India made it clear if any leaders from any country want to visit New Delhi, they could come but must not plan on traveling to Islamabad from here. Apart from the fact that the airspace was closed, India conveyed that it would make no exceptions either.
At some point, Saudi Arabia suggested a ‘face-to-face’ talk between India and Pakistan in its presence. New Delhi refused. Saudi Minister of State for foreign Affairs Adel bin Ahmed al-Jubeir did visit India but under the condition that he cannot travel to Pakistan from here.
These three countries, sources said, delivered India’s message to Pakistan that if it escalates matters militarily, India will continue to respond. Those familiar with details told ET that Pakistan was brought under considerable pressure because each time it made the call for further escalation, it had difficult phone calls to handle.
And just like on the military front, each decision on escalation was followed by more pressure. Eventually, the hits on the air bases and the growing diplomatic pressure proved too difficult for Pakistan to handle.
TYING UP THE ENDS
Finally, the Pakistan DGMO made the call seeking a ceasefire on May 10. India said it’s willing to ‘stop fire’ but Pakistan will have to pull back troops and show convincing measures of military de-escalation.
When firings resumed in the night, the Pakistan DGMO was again asked of Islamabad’s sincerity. Indicating a lack of cohesion in the Pakistani system, sources said, the Pak DGMO sought more time.
By March 11 morning, some calm had started to return. However, sources said, India will remain on high alert and not roll back any of the diplomatic decisions it took soon after the Pahalgam attack including the call to hold the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance.
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